Smokkee's 2014 Oscar Picks

Hello, WORLD!! Smokkee here, thankfully. This is my first post of 2014 on any of my blogs. Had a little health scare in January and I'm just now starting to feel close to 100% again. I'm good though.

We're less than a week away from the 86th annual Academy Awards ceremony. This year's nominees are among one of the toughest batches I've seen in recent years. Besides the Best Supporting Actress award, which I think is essentially won already, most of these awards are fair game for all who were nominated. Lemme break down who I think has the best shots at each of the major awards.

BEST PICTURE: Spike Jonze's HER

Of the 9 films nominated, only four (AMERICAN HUSTLE, GRAVITY, 12 YEARS A SLAVE, THE WOLF OF WALL STREET) had any major exposure. It's a shame because three other nominees (HER, NEBRASKA, DALLAS BUYERS CLUB) were just terrific. That leaves two (CAPTAIN PHILLIPS, PHILOMENA) that I believe shouldn't have been nominated except they each both had incredible performances: Barkhad Abdi as the pirates 'Captain' in PHILLIPS (which I felt outdid the great Tom Hanks' own performance) and Judi Dench as the eponymous PHILOMENA. Sidenote: 2 outta every 3 movies nominated this year is based on a true story. I don't think I've seen that before but I'm getting older, forgetting alot.

Who wins?  12 YEARS and DBC are good enough to win but unfortunately due to the gravity of their subject matter, I doubt either has a serious shot. AMERICAN HUSTLE is clearly the people's champ right now but GRAVITY may just snatch the award from it. With that said, I feel the Oscar should go to HER. It's a timely movie that's just as funny as it is accurate. Also it's the one movie on this list that everybody can relate to easily without any hangups. Think about it.


BEST ACTRESS: Amy Adams - American Hustle
Considering that every nominee has won an Academy Award accept Amy Adams, that could make her turn as a beautiful con artist in AMERICAN HUSTLE an Oscar winning one. Could, not should. The only serious threat to Adams' win is Cate Blanchett, who almost single-handedly made BLUE JASMINE a must see film. Judi Dench was equally wonderful as PHILOMENA though I doubt she wins this award because of the lack of awareness about it, another reason why I think Adams may eek out this win. To be honest, although I did like Sandra Bullock in GRAVITY, I liked the two strong female leads from AUGUST: OSAGE COUNTY so much I felt like Julia Roberts should have gotten this nomination instead of Bullock and of course she as another Oscar winner also could have canceled out her A:OC costar Meryl Steep's nomination. 


BEST ACTOR: Leonardo DiCaprio - THE WOLF OF WALL STREET

This year is the year Leo DiCaprio gets his Oscar. TWOWS was fantastic only because of Leo. His embodiment of 80s greed was the heartbeat of this whole movie. I really wasn't that impressed with the movie when I first seen it but I'll chalk that off to the pneumonia I was diagnosed with 2 days later. Even then I noticed that the movies energy flowed from not around,  DiCaprio. I just watched it again recently and now feel like it's the little sister to Scorese's GOODFELLAS; same underlying theme sans the violence. Now, Christian Bale was great in AH but he didn't carry his movie like Leo did. Chiwetel Ejiofor COULD win for 12 YEARS because it was one hell of a performance... but yeah right!! Hollywood don't have the guts to give it to him (I wouldn't be mad if they proved me wrong here though). Matthew McConaughey was great in a gutsy role but got outshined in DALLAS BUYERS CLUB. The only real serious threat to Leo is Bruce Dern in a career defining role in NEBRASKA. The Academy could reward Dern here for it. 

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS: Jennifer Lawrence - AMERICAN HUSTLE
This is the easiest award winner to pick. Sally Hawkins was OK as BLUE JASMINE's sister but not award winning great. Ditto June Squibb as Dern's long suffering wife in NEBRASKA. Doesn't seem like they had to stretch any acting chops for those roles. And while Julia Roberts was Best Actress level terrific in A:OC and Lupita Nyong'o made everybody take notice of her as the lusted-after slave Patsey in 12 YEARS, neither will win. Nyong'o for the same reason Ejiofor won't win the Best Actor Oscar for the same movie. Robert's A:OC was great but it touches on some extremely taboo subjects. I doubt if the Academy will reward the terrific performances from it but who knows. That only leaves one real nominee and it just so happens that she's Hollywood's current 'IT' girl. My only knock against J Law winning this award is she really wasn't in the movie long enough, in my opinion, to have 'supported' this movie.




BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR: Jared Leto - DALLAS BUYERS CLUB
If you read my review for CAPTAIN PHILLIPS, you'll see I LOVED Barkhad Abdi's role as the leader of the pirates who hijack Phillips cargo ship. I was extreme happy to see he got nominated. He won't win though, unfortunately. Neither will Michael Fassbender (whom I have no doubt will win an Oscar within the next three years or so; he's that great) for 12 YEARS. Bradley Cooper and Jonah Hill's noms are mind boggling to say the least. Not because they are bad performances but I can certainly think of better last year. Somebody whom I feel should have been nominated was Will Forte for his role as the Dern's son in NEBRASKA. Another nominee, one that would have been even more shocking than both of Jonah Hill's nominations, is Andrew Dice Clay who played the husband to Hawkin's character in BLUE JASMINE. It wouldn't have mattered though. This year's best supporting actress was actually a man! Jared Leto as Rayon in DALLAS BUYERS CLUB was probably the gutsiest performance all year. And the Academy will reward it as such, I promise.


DIRECTOR: Alfonso Cuaron - GRAVITY

David O Russell may be the favorite here with his AMERICAN HUSTLE entry. Alexander Payne's NEBRASKA touched a lot of people. Martin Scorsese gave us his best film since THE DEPARTED (some would argue GOOFELLAS but I digress) in TWOWS. Steve McQueen COULD win with his 12 YEARS but (stop me if you've heard this) it won't win because of the subject matter. Besides all of that, I feel that Alfonso Cuaron's tale of a doomed space mission should win this Award. It was one of the cinematic marvels of 2013 and even though it was set in space, it essentially boils down to a human study; about how we can lose, and then find, our way again. That's what I got from it, at least. 


And now for some quick goes at some of the other awards:

BEST ANIMATED FEATURE: FROZEN, which also wins the BEST MUSIC/ ORIGINAL SONG Oscar for 'Let It Go'. THE WIND RISES should win though. SN: Why wasn't EPIC nominated?

ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY: HER, easily. It was the most original film of the year, after all.

ADAPTED SCREENPLAY: 12 YEARS at least gets one award. This is it.

PRODUCTION DESIGN: GRAVITY. Space ain't never looked this good before.



BEST FOREIGN LANGUAGE FILM: Denmark's THE HUNT. Very powerful film with a universal message.






BEST DOCUMENTARY: Here, I'm gonna go with my personal choice, the documentary about backup singers called 20 FEET FROM STARDOM. Besides the other choices were too similar to each other to really stand out (except for CUTIE AND THE BOXER, which essentially is about a long term marriage). If you're asking, DIRTY WARS is the best of the rest. OAN: I can't believe Lisa Fischer ('How Can I Ease The Pain?') still looks and sounds good after all these years! She's one of the backup singers featured in 20FFS.

Lisa Fischer not just backup singing w/Mick Jagger at a Rolling Stones concert in 2013.

There you have it, WORLD. I've made my choices and these are my final answers. Am I right? Of course I am!! But we'll just have to wait til this Sunday before it's official. Later, WORLD.